By Stephen Pradarelli
Not long ago, I scheduled my flight review with Jason, a CFI at my flying club. The review was long overdue, and I missed getting up in the air. But travel, a bout of Influenza B, and the vicissitudes of life forced me to put it off until four months past my currency.
Our flight plan included standard Airman Certification Standards (ACS) stuff, plus a couple of surprises, including my first-ever turning stalls. With Jason--an Air Force reservist--in the right seat, I knew I was in good hands. Unfortunately, the fickle early spring Midwest weather was far less dependable on the day we scheduled the review.
The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) and Meteorological Aerodrome Report (METAR) were fairly optimistic, reporting slightly better than legally acceptable conditions. And things looked decent enough from the ground. Once we took off, though, the sky told a different story.
“These weather decisions can be painful to make, because we don’t really know how to go about making them.”
--- Introduction to Weather Flying by Robert N. Buck
We decided to do a brief scouting run to see if the low, fuzzy skies creeping in from the southwest were going to present a problem. Not a mile from our home airport, and we were cocooned in a murky, misty, scud that rapidly obscured the ground just 1500 feet below us.
We turned around, landed, and rescheduled the review for another day.
Aviation weather reports can seem authoritative, precise, dependable--even clinical, as with this METAR:
“KDSM 121754Z 21012KT 10SM -RA BKN035 OVC060 18/16 A2982”
But the strings of characters relayed in METARs and TAFs are just snapshots of conditions from minutes or even hours ago. We need a lot more tools, resources, and practices to become truly weather-savvy pilots. That includes the tools of our own senses and wisdom so we can make the right call when the weather picture is, metaphorically speaking, “foggy.”
“These weather decisions can be painful to make, because we don’t really know how to go about making them,” the introduction to the 5th edition of Robert N. Buck’s seminal Weather Flying says. “And we know we don’t know! We make them often by a process which is a dumb, confused struggle between ‘guts’ and ‘judgment,’ ambition and fear.”
You won’t become a Robert Buck overnight. It takes a lot of hours on the Hobbs meter and experience flying in all seasons to gain a good sense of weather beyond the numbers. But there are several ways to weather-proof your flying.
1. Build Real Weather Literacy (Not Just Decoding Skills) & Localize It
Reading a METAR or TAF isn’t the same as understanding weather. Too many pilots can translate “BKN025” but can’t visualize what that layer is doing, where it’s moving, or how it’s evolving. So it’s a good idea to invest in actual weather education. You can do that several ways:
-
Read foundational texts like Buck’s Weather Flying, one of the clearest bridges between theory and cockpit decision-making, or Flying the Weather Map by Richard L. Collins, the late editor-in-chief of “Flying” and “AOPA Pilot” magazines, whose book walks through actual flights and decision-making scenarios.
-
Supplement your knowledge with FAA resources like the Aviation Weather Handbook (FAA-H-8083-28).
-
Take a weather-focused ground school or seminar—many are now scenario-based, which is where the real learning happens. The FAA’s WINGS program offers a wide range of weather-related courses, covering everything from preflight planning and in-flight weather to specialized weather hazards (like icing, mountain winds, and thunderstorms) to decision-making to help make that go/no-go decision easier.
It’s also good to expand your understanding of the weather in your region by talking to pilots who fly your routes regularly. They’ll often give you more actionable insight than any forecast product.
For instance, coastal pilots learn to expect and respect marine layers (nicknamed “Fred” in the Bay Area), mountain pilots learn about obscuration and rotor turbulence, and Midwest pilots learn that “isolated thunderstorms” can turn into organized systems like derechos faster than expected.
2. Define--and Honor--Your Personal Minimums
Regulations define what’s legal, not what’s smart. Your personal minimums should be written down, revisited, and treated as hard limits--not suggestions. These might include:
-
Visibility minimums (e.g., 5-7 SM for newer VFR pilots)
-
Ceiling (e.g., no departures below 3,000 ft AGL until you gain experience)
Crosswind component (based on demonstrated ability, not aircraft limits) -
Maximum winds aloft or gust spreads
Remember: currency (operating in accordance with the minimum legal limitations of your aircraft, your rating, your recent flying experience, and the weather) is not the same thing as proficiency--or even capability. A day that looks comfortably VFR to an instrument-rated pilot flying a Beechcraft Baron might be completely inappropriate for a student in a Cessna 150.
Personal minimums evolve, but only if you update them deliberately, rather than “on the fly” after you’ve already done your preflight and are anxious to take off into uncertain weather.
3. Don’t Get Bit by Your Biases
The Federal Aviation Administration identifies five hazardous attitudes that repeatedly show up in accident reports. Weather-related incidents often have one or more lurking in the background:
-
Anti-authority: “The forecast is overly conservative--I’ll be fine.”
-
Impulsivity: Launching quickly to “beat the weather” instead of waiting for clarity, or overreacting when something goes wrong.
-
Invulnerability: “I’ve flown in worse.”
-
Macho: Taking pride in pushing limits rather than respecting them.
-
Resignation: “It’s too late-- I don’t have any control over this situation.”
And then there’s the unofficial--but pervasive--sixth hazardous attitude: Get-there-itis. The quiet pressure to complete the mission, even when conditions deteriorate.
In 2014, a Beechcraft Bonanza crashed near Chicago after encountering icing conditions during descent. The investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board found that multiple PIREPs had reported moderate to severe icing in the area. While the pilot acknowledged the reports, he continued the descent into known icing conditions.
The issue wasn’t a lack of data. It was how the data was integrated into the pilot’s mental model.
Continuation bias—the tendency to stick with the original plan—can quietly override new information.
4. Become Fluent in NEXRAD (and Other Tools to Add to Your Belt)
METARs and TAFs are snapshots and predictions—but not a full picture. A classic trap is to take off just because there’s a “good” METAR at your departure airport and at your destination, when the situation between those two points could be dramatically different. So be sure to become conversant in all of the many meteorological tools available to you, including:
-
Radar (NEXRAD), which shows precipitation (though it’s important to remember that, because of latency, what’s displayed may be 5-10 minutes old).
-
PIREPs (Pilot Reports). PIREPs are the best real-world, real-time reports about conditions from pilots actually flying through the stuff, whether the stuff is cloud layers that may differ from official reports, turbulence, icing, or other wonders of nature. Practice PIREPs in the always-free BASICS unit of ARSim.
-
Satellite Imagery, which lets you see cloud structure and movement. Infrared imagery is especially useful for identifying cloud tops and convective potential.
-
Surface Analysis Charts show fronts, pressure systems, and the big picture driving your local weather.
-
Winds Aloft Forecasts, which aren’t just critical for groundspeed calculations, but are helpful in identifying wind shear, turbulence, and frontal boundaries.
One bonus and frequently untapped resource? A human weather briefing.
In the age of apps, talking to a human being on the phone is becoming a lost habit. But getting a personal weather briefing is one of the most underused safety tools. A call to Flight Service (1-800-WX-BRIEF in the U.S.) gives you:
-
A human interpretation of complex or borderline conditions
-
The ability to ask “What am I missing?”
-
Insights that raw data alone might not make obvious
Briefers are trained to highlight hazards that might be difficult, or impossible, to pick out of data-based weather reports.
5. Look for Trends, Not Just Conditions
A single METAR is a moment. Weather, on the other hand, is dynamic. Safety comes from understanding the trajectory and pattern of the evolving weather. Before flying, try to determine where the wind is blowing (so to speak):
-
Is the ceiling lowering over the past few hours?
-
Are winds increasing or shifting?
-
Are dew point spreads narrowing (which can hint at fog formation)?
-
Are convective forecasts becoming more aggressive?
A steady drop in temperature/dew point spread from 5°C to 1°C over two hours should raise alarms about imminent reduced visibility. Similarly, a TAF that starts benign but includes “TEMPO TSRA” during your planned arrival window deserves attention, since it means temporary, intermittent, or fleeting occurrences of thunderstorms with moderate rain are expected.
Developing a Spidey Sense & Having an ‘Out’
Once you’re airborne, several in-flight weather resources are available, like the Flight Information Service-Broadcast (or FIS-B) and Flight Service Stations (FSS) available via 122.2, as well as commercial products like the satellite-based SiriusXM Aviation.
But you’ll have to rely much more on your eyes, ears, and gut--your “Spidey sense”--to decide when it’s safe to continue or best to divert or turn around, as I did on my first scheduled flight review. That includes always having an exit strategy.
Pilots rarely get into trouble because of the lack of information. They get into trouble because they lack options--or they wait too long to use them. So make sure every flight plan (written or in your head) considers:
-
Alternate airports with potentially better conditions
-
A clear turn-back point (remember to practice those timed 180-degree turns)
-
Fuel reserves that support flexibility, not just legality
Before you encounter deteriorating weather, ask yourself: “If this gets worse, what’s my move?” And, “At what point do I divert?”
One day, while working on my license, I was heading to an airport north of me to practice touch-and-goes. While radar showed the weather clear along my route, a few miles into the flight, the horizon began to look like something out of Mordor, all black clouds and menace. I declared “nope” and turned myself right around.
Finally, remember that Air Traffic Control is always a call away on 121.5 if you need direct radar guidance or want to declare an emergency.
Sure, it can be hard to ask for help. But the pain of embarrassment is a lot easier to bear than the terror of flying into weather that puts you and your aircraft directly in harm’s way.
The Debrief: When it comes to weather flying, the safest pilots aren’t the ones with the most data. They’re the ones who understand what the data means, recognize when reality diverges from the forecast, and are willing to say early and without ego: “Not today.”
Have an idea for a Left Seat? Interested in being interviewed for one? Email Stephen at spradarelli@gmail.com. Here are some upcoming articles we’d love to include you in:
Tower Talk 101: What Controllers Wish Pilots Would Stop Doing: This one is for the people working day and night to keep pilots and passengers safe in the air and on the ground. We want to hear from ATC staff (current or retired) about pilot communication habits they’ve experienced that make their jobs more challenging, the skies less safe, or that are simply annoying.
Why Staying Sharp on the Mic Is Part of Staying Current and Proficient: For some people, currency training focuses on solid takeoffs and landings, emergency procedures, and navigation. But effective—and confident—communication skills are just as important to ensuring safe and successful flights. What modules of the Plane English ARSim have you found especially helpful to keep on top of your communications game?
